Track and Trace Break-even Simulation Model : Case of South Africa

Author : Kirsten van der Zee : Research Officer at Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products

Illicit trade – threat to the impact of tobacco control and public health.
• Track and trace (T&T):
⁃ sophisticated systems; products marked with secure
⁃ trace products to origin and track along distribution.
• The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit trade in Tobacco Products requires that parties implement an independent T&T system.

ITP suggests the tobacco industry cover T&T cost; in practice government often pays for it.
• These systems can seem expensive;
⁃ How much should governments spend to implement T&T?
• Excel-based optimization model, determine break-even cost of T&T:
⁃ Based on basic economic principles
⁃ Uses South African data